January 18, 2007

Can I Like the BCS, but Hate the Regular Season?

Flipping a fair coin will result in heads half the time, and tails half the time. So, a coin flipped 12 times will result in 6 heads, 6 tails most often- roughly a quarter (hah!) of the time. But, a result of 7 or 8 heads wouldn't be surprising either.
10 heads happens three times every 200 flips. 11 heads, once every 500, and 12 happens once every 4096 times.

Now, coaches and dreamers will tell you that on any game day, both teams have a chance to win. Then why isn't anyone betting heavy on Temple? It's evident that some teams chances to win are much, much higher than others. Unfortunetly, as any Badger can tell you, it seems most teams are content filling their out-of-conference schedules with creamy cupcakes, choosing to rake in turnstile money by filling their stadiums to capacity, while real fans are at bars trying to convince others to watch ESPNU instead of risking a loss on national television to a team with any sort of talent.

Let's look at Wisconsin as an example. They were heavily favored against all 4 OOC teams, Indiana, and Illinois. They were favored against everyone else except Michigan. Now our coin becomes unfair: we are getting heads 85, 90 percent of the time. The problem is that everyone else has biased coins as well. Very few teams are going out and playing a lot of high-level teams out of conference: the only one that jumps to mind is USC playing Arkansas and Nebraska. Ohio State, Texas, Florida, Michigan, and the rest are content with one high-level matchup.

If college football was ever decided by a playoff, I bet this trend would get even worse. Why bother risking a loss, risk getting kicked out of a lucrative playoff spot because the fans demanded someone other than Directional State? At least now, if you lose out of conference you can still lobby for a BCS spot by winning the conference.

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